A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
